Following the announcements of Pierre Gasly and Lance Stroll remaining with their respective teams for 2025 (right decision on the former, not a surprise on the latter) that fills 13 of the 20 driver slots for 2025 with 4 teams now confirming their lineups (Although Checo needs to be careful).

That leaves 6 teams with a decision to make and and here’s how we think and hope this will play out over the coming weeks.

Mercedes
Likely Choice – Andrea Kimi Antonelli
Hopeful option – Mick Schumacher

Antonelli may be the heir apparent but his slow acclimatisation to F2 may prompt a rethink, Mick would make a nice stopgap without ruffling George’s feathers too much before Antonelli is ready.

Alpine
Likely Choice – Jack Doohan
Hopeful Option – Theo Pourchaire

It’s always sad when an F2 champion doesn’t get a shot at F1 and Pourchaire was almost a victim of his own early career hype, Sauber didn’t see fit to give him a chance buy as a Frenchman, Alpine makes sense even though Doohan has impressed in testing and had an underrated F2 career.

RB
Likely Choice – Daniel Ricciardo
Hopeful Option – Liam Lawson

If his 2023 stand-in didn’t earn him a grid seat then you have to conclude that Lawson remains the second favourite in the Red Bull hierarchy.

We love Ricciardo but while he still produces a good performance every now and again, his baseline has declined badly, putting Lawson in the car makes sense from a competitive view and to continue a suddenly stagnating Red Bull Driver Academy program.

Sauber
Likely Choice – Carlos Sainz
Hopeful Option – Carlos Sainz

We’ve put him in twice as he is the likely first choice of the team but signing for Sauber seems to entirely be on Carlos’ decision.

Unless he is watching Checo closely for whether Red Bull start to panic (the field closing in on them might aid him there) he has a choice between Williams, a team who haven’t graced the midfield since 2017 and Sauber who are currently the slowest team in F1.

Audi are the lingering shadow, they have undoubted motorsport pedigree but as (insert failed early 2000s manufacturer) proved, that doesn’t guarantee anything and it’s up to Carlos to decide if he wants to play the long game.

Williams
Likely Choice – Valtteri Bottas
Hopeful Option – Andrea Kimi Antonelli

Valtteri returning to the team he began with makes sense, it would give Williams their first truly strong driver pairing since he was last with the team in 2016 and would provide a good performance benchmark for Alex Albon.

But if Mercedes opt for a stopgap, putting Antonelli in a spot where he can learn the sport without the pressure of immediate podiums would be fun to watch, there are a lot of comparisons to Hamilton but there is a significant age and experience in the lower formula gap between the two, Mercedes need to look at how Red Bull managed Max for an example instead.

Haas
Likely Choices – Esteban Ocon & Ollie Bearman

Haas have a history of reclaiming aggressive midfield drivers who’s careers are stagnating (Grosjean and Magnussen) so this move makes a lot of sense, a few months ago it seemed guaranteed that Ollie Bearman would take the second seat but his F2 struggles have brought a different perspective to this decision.