Red Bull – Sort out the Second Driver.

This article was initially planned prior to transfer deadline day, Lewis Hamilton’s extraordinary move (more on that later) has altered the landscape but not necessarily for the defending World Champions.

Signing Sergio Perez helped Max Verstappen win the Championship in 2021, regardless of your opinion on Abu Dhabi, the whole point might have been redundant had the Mexican not defended masterfully earlier in the race against Lewis to keep Max in touch.

Mercedes’ error in keeping an unmotivated Bottas a season too long ultimately cost them, Checo has utilised the goodwill built from 2021 and must now show that he can ably support Max again and contend for race wins should the Dutchman falter (it could happen…).

Tsunoda and Ricciardo have yet to show the potential to compete for a Championship and with Norris locked up, a return for Albon, Gasly or Sainz to their ‘home stable’ seem to be the competition with Liam Lawson at the head of the Junior Program not even being considered for a seat, it’s in Perez’s hands but Horner, Marko and co (elephant in the room ignored) must not allow complacency to set in as Mercedes did with Bottas, dynasties can slip away quickly in Formula 1.

(Qualifying in Saudi Arabia, Australia, Miami, Monaco, Spain and Austria excluded from the above due to one of the drivers failing to register a representative laptime.

Perez took pole in both Saudi Arabia and Miami but crashed in Australia, Monaco and Spain with his laptimes deleted in Austria for track limit violations)

Mercedes – Develop consistency.

There have been times during the last two seasons where it has appeared as if Mercedes have worked it out at last, Barcelona, Zandvoort and of course Interlagos in 2022, Albert Park, Mexico in 2023 and visits to Austin in both seasons, yet bar the Austin-Mexico double header, the performance just disappears at the next race.

Circuit characteristics play a part and Mercedes remain strategically solid, taking advantage of their rival’s conservatism and having seemingly mastered long opening stints on the slower tyre, yet the inability to close the gap to Red Bull across two seasons has been mystifying.

Lewis’ decision to leave Ferrari has many facets yet as a competitive soul whose ultimate objective is to claim the eighth title that he feels was taken from him, the fact he has chosen Ferrari as the best bet for that and not Mercedes is damning having seen more than most will have behind the scenes.

Mercedes may have dominated the last decade but the first few seasons of that were spent in the doldrums, as Ferrari, McLaren and Williams all know, past success does not guarantee anything and the innovative spirit that brought DAS was perhaps held onto with the zero-sidepod design that ultimately proved unmanageable, Mercedes are not to be counted out but they must begin to balance sporting confidence against progressive arrogance if they are to contend again.

Ferrari – Work out the hard tyre.

Perhaps the big move is all about fixing a killer flaw, arguably the finest driver on the grid at managing his tyres (a once supposed weakness let us not forget) is coming and Ferrari need something, anything to help them overcome a critical hindrance that will keep them from claiming the much-desired title.

Over the past two seasons it has always felt as if the Scuderia can keep Red Bull honest over one lap on the soft tyres, yet their race pace seems to disintegrate as they burn the rubber away and are forced into less optimum strategies.

Fred Vassuer may have somewhat cleaned up the operational plague that has haunted them for years (although it remains to be stress tested by leading races) but they cannot challenge consistently with one hand tied behind their back and for all of their engineering prowess it often seems as if they have no answers to sorting this out.

Ferrari are the only other team in this current era of regulations who have designed a genuine race winning car, that must have played on Lewis’ mind when he made the move, they jumped from occasional podium threat to appearing dominant in one off-season and they could do this again but 2024 should not be a write-off, multiple race wins should always be the minimum objective for the Prancing Horses.

McLaren – Get Lando a Win.

Of all the cruel race outcomes in 2021 (last reference I promise), Lando Norris losing his maiden victory at Sochi was unquestionably the harshest. Having followed his teammate home at Monza and aquaplaned out of a potential pole to safety car aided win at Spa (whether he would’ve wanted to win that way is a different question), what made it so brutal was that his performance that afternoon fully merited the win.

A few months later at Bahrain 2022, Lando must have feared the worst when McLaren sunk back but last season’s renaissance has inspired him to put all his chips on Papaya, having potentially signed himself out of a Red Bull and Mercedes seat, he must hope that all of Zak Brown’s undoubted promises will play out as stated.

Having threatened Max at Interlagos as well as any driver did in 2023, Lando has shown the talents that should translate into victories when the machinery is close enough, there are no guarantees in Formula 1 and in order to avoid falling into the ‘Hulkenberg’ zone, McLaren need to work out some way, any way of getting him onto the top step.

Already level with ‘Quick’ Nick Heidfeld for most podiums without a win, Lando has time on his side but the longer this goes, the more the pressure ramps up as mistakes crept in when the possibility was dangled late into 2023, targeting the ‘gimmick’ tracks where Red Bull might fall backwards, Monaco, Monza, Singapore etc might cost performance over the course of the season but if Lando can taste the winning champagne it would bode well for the long term prospects of the team.

Aston Martin – Improve the car mid-season.

Working out the future of Lance Stroll would be the other obvious objective for Aston, his previous method of pulling out a strong performance when the questions were starting to intensify didn’t materialise in 2023 as like many, he found Alonso’s tenacious ability hard to match up with, but working out the innermost thoughts of Lance and Lawrence is impossible to know.

Going back to the season of the ‘Pink Mercedes’, Racing Point as they were then known started as the second quickest team but eventually fell away to finish fourth in the constructors, only a handful of points ahead of Renault, car development has been an achilles heel for the team.

Force India of old used to be able to maximise the budget to remain competitive, despite the criticism of Lawrence Stroll he has bankrolled the team to aim for future championships, something the sport needs to remember that it is important to retain ten teams with proper title ambitions, improving infrastructure is the longest term of plays but in its third season in green, a form of payoff should start to show.

Mercedes and Ferrari getting their act together made Aston Martin’s slide appear worse than it was, Alonso battling back at the front was arguably the highlight of the season and a reminder of what F1 lost during his years in uncompetitive machinery, McLaren’s rise has raised the pressure on Aston this season and if both Stroll’s are committed to success, making a step forward mid-season should be the goal as recent history has shown (2017, 2018, 2022) that this can make a Championship.

(100 used to represent Alonso retiring in the race).

Alpine – Don’t take a step back.

Owing to McLaren and Aston Martin’s leap to fighting in the ‘best of the not Red Bull class’ last season, Alpine remained the only realistic midfield team in the sport last season, consistent point challengers if not scorers, Q3 appearances and a pair of surprise podiums providing an obscure picture of where they stand.

The two key moments of 2023 with long-term implications, selling a large stake to RedBird Investment group alongside a whole host of sports stars and the subsequent (related?) clear out of the management at Spa.

Where this leaves Alpine is hard to say, teams under that level of turbulence don’t usually take a step forward especially in the long term planning era of Formula 1, Alpine/Renault have occupied an awkward sport since the former came back to reinvest of not quite being able to push ahead but having enough competitiveness to frustrate those who recall the Kimi Lotus, Fernando in yellow and blue and Benetton days (not Adelaide 94’ though).

All of which means a successful season for Alpine is not to fall backwards into the ‘C Class’ of Formula 1, the two drivers are capable of pulling out high level performances and both will feel they could drive themselves into a wildcard option for the bigger teams, Renault are impossible to second-guess but the sport needs their blue French flavour and it would be a shame to see their commitment waiver if the worst was to happen.

Williams – Prove 2023 wasn’t a fluke.

Digging into Williams long and storied history for any lessons for the present would not provide much context, the team and sport have changed so much since the glory days, the BMW near misses and the Pastor Maldonado miracle.

Ignoring George Russell’s safety car aided podium at Spa (not that it was undeserved, that qualifying lap in those conditions was exceptional), the last podium in racing anger was Lance Stroll in Baku 2017, as chaotic a race as there has been in the modern era.

That season saw Williams finish in the top 5 of the Constructors Championship for the fourth consecutive season, a year later they were bottom of the pile and have been last in 4 out of the 6 seasons that followed, Dorilton appear to have steadied the ship and in Alex Albon they have a man capable of executing alternate strategies to take advantage of obscure conditions but consistent, pure pace has to be the target for the team.

When (If?) Audi joins the grid, over half of the teams will be ‘works’ outfits, an unprecedented percentage in Formula 1, with McLaren pushing hard to be the ultimate ‘customer team’ and the spectre of General Motors still wanting a grid spot, Williams existence as the sole independent can grow into true underdog status, backing Logan Sargent and trusting more from Albon are the short/medium term goals, engineering progress has to begin to click into place if this legendary outfit is to remain relevant in the long term.

VCarb – Let the drivers have fun.

Change the name. It is staggering that in Liberty Media’s current ‘every race is a Superbowl’ mentality that they would allow such a dreadful piece of corporate monotony to occupy a premium slot on the airwaves every weekend.

Alpha Tauri and Toro Rosso were hardly explosive names (could Minardi not have been revived?) and from AMG Petronas to John Player Special, this has always been an element of the sport, even Visa Racing would have been better but alas the dollar signs were too high to ignore.

To the track and with predictions of closer alignment to Red Bull expected, this car should move closer to not just point scoring but being a serious threat to the ‘B Class of F1’ and with that in mind, it would be a fantastic penance to the fanbase if the team unleashed the two drivers both of whom have wildcard potential to mix a race up through both brilliance or particularly on Tsunoda’s side, disastrous ambition.

Ever since he threw one up the inside of Lewis Hamilton at Imola in just his second race, Tsunoda has been something of an enigma (for the record, he span out unable to slow the car down) and Ricciardo’s ceiling is well known yet he currently dwells in the performance cellar, the team may draw the ire of the fans and for good reason, if the two men behind the wheel can deliver the excitement they are capable of, then maybe the name will begin to occupy a fonder place (optimistic I know).

Stake – Have a big race.

Sneaking in behind the former Alpha Tauri’s dreadful name, at least Sauber/Alfa Romeo/Audi TBC offer the possibility of meat-based puns and an end date (we assume?) to when this will disappear from the grid.

Ever since announcing their surprise decision to join Formula 1, the long wait has created something of a strange lull for the team who lack the resource to really push on yet must try and set a form of template for a brand with impressive motorsport pedigree to step into the fray.

As always, the drivers will occupy the mind of the fans and media, the prospect of ‘Rosberg-ing’ it and moving from the midfield to building toward a dynasty sounds tantalising but as Toyota, BMW, Honda and Jaguar found in the 2000s, investment and a well-known car brand doesn’t translate into lap time.

Zhou has shown in his two seasons that he can marry up to Valtteri Bottas’ speed, an impressive achievement considering his inexperience but in that time this team has yet to really have its moment, Hulkenberg and Magnussen’s qualifying heroics, Albon pushing forward on hard tyres, Ricciardo in Mexico and Lawson’s introduction, this team doesn’t have that, delivering that point, that reminder of why they are racing needs to be the ambition, especially if either of these two want to race in Audi black and red.

Haas – Work out the plan or sell to Andretti.

Despite being considered one of the worst seasons in recent memory (although people seem to forget the Mercedes era was hardly thrilling), the offseason between 2023 and 2024 has been packed with drama, kickstarted by the end of Guenther, the breakout star of Drive to Survive and a man who was able to capture the imagination of the public to write a bestselling autobiography.

Never before has an obscure sporting manager earned such stardom despite relatively poor results and it is those results that seemed to have caused the friction, Gene Haas believing the finance was there for better and fundamentally disagreeing with Guenther that more was not possible.

Who is correct remains to be seen but it was clear that Haas did not deliver last season, their tyre wear was abysmal, even in sprint races they seemed to fall apart midway through and in the Pirelli era, when the tyres dictate everything, this cannot be excused.

If Ayo Komatsu can correct that and draw more performances out of his drivers, Haas can compete higher up, if not then their presence on the grid draws more attention, the Andretti rejection analysis seemed to miss the sports original invite for GM to invest in another team, a prospect that could open for Haas or this has added a few more million dollars onto the buy-out that Andretti will have to sum up but however that plays out, for the racing team, good performances on track can at least put the focus elsewhere.